AS the race for the Conservative Party leadership nears its conclusion, the atmosphere is charged with intrigue and competition. The last two candidates will be chosen by this afternoon.
Currently, the race features three candidates: James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, and Kemi Badenoch. However, only two of them will secure a spot in the final round, leading to much speculation and strategic manoeuvring behind the scenes. “We are pushing towards quite the season finale,” remarked one Conservative MP, highlighting the significance of this moment.
While some may argue that this is merely a preliminary vote to identify the finalists for the position of Leader of the Opposition next month, the stakes are undeniably high. This is not the race for the White House, but it is a pivotal moment for the party.
Cleverly Takes the Lead
The standout development from Tuesday’s voting was James Cleverly, who not only took the lead but did so by a considerable margin, garnering 39 votes—far more than many expected, even within his own camp. His strong showing is attributed to a successful conference speech last week and the effective outreach to MPs who had previously supported former cabinet minister Mel Stride.
With a total of 121 votes available, achieving 41 votes guarantees a place in the final two, given that neither of the other candidates can surpass that total. Notably, outgoing leader Rishi Sunak did not cast a vote, reducing the electorate to 120.
Cleverly is now on the brink of securing his position, barring any significant setbacks. The focus has shifted to a contest for second place between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick. Jenrick finished second in the latest round with 31 votes, although he lost two votes compared to the previous round. Badenoch followed closely with 30 votes, gaining two since the last tally. Following the anticipated elimination of Tom Tugendhat, there are now 20 votes in play, which could be crucial in this tight race.
“James is an irrelevance now. It’s all now a battle between us and Kemi’s team,” stated a source from Team Jenrick. “Tom’s supporters are closer to our side than hers,” they added confidently.
High Stakes and Uncertain Outcomes
Badenoch’s supporters expressed disappointment at her performance in the latest round but believe there is a faction of Tugendhat supporters who are less favourable towards Jenrick, particularly due to his controversial comments regarding British special forces and the European Convention on Human Rights. One MP noted, “Rob is in trouble,” suggesting that the dynamics are shifting.
As the race intensifies, Conservative MPs must weigh their preferences carefully, considering how party members might react to different pairings. Current analysis indicates that James Cleverly could potentially outpace Robert Jenrick among the party members, while Kemi Badenoch might surpass Cleverly.
“Accordingly, if MPs want to stop Cleverly from winning, backing Badenoch seems their best bet. And if they want to stop Badenoch, a vote for Jenrick beckons,” as stated by ConservativeHome, capturing the complexity of the situation.
With so much at stake, there are swirling rumours of behind-the-scenes manoeuvring, as Team Badenoch pushes back against concerns about her appeal among party members. One insider raised a pertinent question: “What will members say if they have to vote for two people they didn’t want?” This reflects on past leadership contests, particularly the 2022 debacle when members favoured Penny Mordaunt over Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.
The potential rejection of Badenoch by the MPs could lead to significant unrest within the party, raising the stakes even higher as the Conservative Party approaches a critical juncture following its recent electoral defeat.
Nigel Farage Predicts
In a recent appearance on GB News, NIgel Farage – Reform UK leader expressed his predictions for the upcoming results while taking aim at the Tory establishment. “Who makes the last two?” he queried. “Cleverly, clearly makes the last two. In terms of policy and positioning, you would expect him to receive many of the Tugendhat votes. So who makes it through between Jenrick on 31 and Badenoch on 30? My guess is that the Cleverly camp and the Conservative establishment will lend a few votes to Kemi Badenoch because they don’t want Jenrick—since he wants to leave the ECHR, and that would never do.”
