RECENT predictions indicate that the Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire seat could well change hands following May’s Assembly elections.
A ratio swing projection based on the pre-election wave of the 2016 Welsh Election Study suggests that the constituency seat, which has been held by Conservative Angela Burns since 2007, is a plausible Plaid Cymru gain.
In 2007, Ms Burns beat Labour’s Christine Gwyther by only 198 votes, with Plaid Cymru coming 250 votes short. However, Ms Burns increased her majority to around 1,500 in 2011.
In a talk about the results of recent polling, Professor Roger Scully also listed the constituency as a ‘stretch’ Labour gain, meaning that both Simon Thomas and Marc Tierney will go into this election with a chance of victory.
Ms Burns is also a well-regarded Assembly Member, and is the party’s Shadow Education Minister, so a three-way voting split, as happened in 2007, is looking increasingly likely.
Professor Scully predicted that Labour would struggle to make any gains in constituency seats. He backed this up by pointing out that Labour are currently running at around 14 percentage points lower than they did in 2011, and that even with increased popularity their current target seats were not captured.
However, the Plaid Cymru vote in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire was significantly lower than had been predicted in the 2015 General Election, leading to a two-horse race which was comfortably won by Simon Hart.
Plaid Cymru’s Simon Thomas, the candidate for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire said: “This most recent poll shows it is a two horse race here between Plaid Cymru and the Tory incumbent. Labour has slid 14 per cent in their popularity since 2011. The Tories are at war on Europe and everything else it seems.
“I am shocked by this right wing Conservative government in Westminster threatening the support for disabled people, running down hard-working NHS staff and arguing over Europe.
“Labour has abandoned the people of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire by not even opposing George Osborne’s Conservative budget. Plaid Cymru voted against as Labour MPs walked away – this shows they are not fit to govern.
“A top Welsh academic says Plaid Cymru could win this seat. We have a few weeks to turn this prediction into reality. In 1966 Gwynfor Evans put this seat on the map and we can create another political earthquake here again in 2016.”
Whether or not the voting records of Westminster politicians is proof of anything at an Assembly level is open to debate. However, Mr Thomas and Mr Tierney have both run energetic grass-roots campaigns, and have showed a grasp of issues which affect the electorate.
In an election which promises few surprises and little in the way of a shift in the Welsh political landscape, the result in this constituency could potentially leave Plaid Cymru in control of the majority of west Wales constituencies, ensure that Labour doesn’t lose any AMs, or contribute to the strongest Conservative showing yet.
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