KEIR STARMER’S weekend appearance at the Welsh Labour Conference in Llandudno was always going to be a balancing act. With the Senedd elections less than a year away and Labour polling alarmingly low, Starmer had to both inspire the party faithful and defend his government’s record. Predictably, he reverted to Labour classics: the minimum wage hike, improved workers’ rights, and a record increase in Welsh funding. These lines drew polite applause—but beneath the surface, discomfort remains palpable.
Firstly, Starmer’s recent welfare U-turn loomed large. He addressed it directly, framing welfare reform as a necessary “moral imperative” while carefully promising to handle it “in a Labour way.” Yet, delegates were left uncertain about what precisely this means in practice. Starmer’s cautious language highlights how difficult it is for Labour to maintain traditional support while also appealing to centrist voters wary of increased spending.
The second problem was on clear display: the evident tension between Starmer and First Minister Eluned Morgan. Morgan’s “Red Welsh Way” campaign, pushing a distinctly assertive Welsh Labour identity, starkly contrasts Starmer’s safer, Westminster-focused messaging. Morgan has repeatedly called out decisions from Westminster she believes harm Wales, notably around welfare and winter fuel allowances. Her public defiance and demand for more devolved powers amplify internal divisions within Labour, reinforcing the perception of a party unsure of its direction.
Most worrying for Labour, however, is its dwindling support in Wales. Recent polls suggest Labour faces the unthinkable: a third-place finish behind Plaid Cymru and a resurgent Reform UK. For a party that has governed Wales continuously for nearly three decades, this would represent not just electoral defeat but an existential crisis.
Morgan’s response has been to frame the upcoming elections as a pivotal “moment of reckoning,” attempting to rally voters by warning against Reform UK’s proposals to overhaul the NHS into a privatised model. Yet, with Wales already enduring some of the worst health outcomes in the UK, Labour’s familiar tactic of invoking NHS fears might now fall flat. Many voters see the current system as failing under Labour stewardship.
These pressures have further fractured relationships between Labour MPs at Westminster and Members of the Senedd in Cardiff. Anonymous briefings branding Cardiff colleagues as “idiots” and “naïve” underline how fragile internal unity has become. Starmer’s current approach—warning of a coalition chaos involving Plaid, Reform, and the Conservatives—might stir momentary unease, but Labour’s longstanding dominance in Wales means voters might not fear change as much as Labour hopes.
Ultimately, Starmer’s struggles in Wales reflect broader difficulties for Labour nationally: uncertainty over identity, internal divisions, and a disconnect with traditional voter bases. Without a clear, unified approach, Labour risks losing not only its Welsh stronghold but also credibility nationwide. Starmer’s cautious pragmatism alone might no longer be enough to secure Labour’s future.
