Labour has been dealt another serious blow ahead of next year’s Senedd election, as a third consecutive opinion poll suggests the party could finish behind both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.
The latest survey, conducted by More in Common for Sky News, places Reform UK in the lead for the Senedd vote with 28%, followed closely by Plaid Cymru on 26%. Labour trails in third place with 23%, despite seeing a modest recovery of five percentage points compared to previous polling. The Conservatives, currently the official opposition in Cardiff Bay, would slump to just 10%.
The poll, carried out between 18 June and 3 July, sampled the views of 883 people. Notably, it found that fewer than half (48%) of those who voted Labour in the 2024 general election would support the party in a Welsh Parliament vote held today.
Labour’s biggest voter losses appear to be to Plaid Cymru (15%) and Reform UK (11%), while 13% of 2024 Labour voters remain undecided about their preference for the Senedd election.
This marks the second time Reform UK has topped a Senedd voting intention poll. A YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales survey in May also showed Labour slipping to third place, with Plaid Cymru ahead. Another poll, by Find Out Now, also gave Reform the lead in Wales.
When respondents were asked how they would vote in a Westminster general election, Reform again came out on top with 33%, while Labour polled just 20%. Plaid Cymru stood at 16%, with the Conservatives on 12%.
The data reflects a striking shift in political sentiment across Wales and adds to the pressure facing Labour as it seeks to rebuild trust with voters. Despite the strong polling figures, Reform UK does not yet have a Welsh leader. Its national figurehead, Nigel Farage, holds a net approval rating of -7 – the same as Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.
Conservative Senedd group leader Darren Millar fares slightly better, with a net approval of -13 – an improvement on his Westminster colleague Kemi Badenoch, whose rating stands at -27. However, First Minister Eluned Morgan also finds herself in negative territory with a net approval rating of -18.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer fares worst of all party leaders in Wales, with a net approval rating of -44. Only 17% of Welsh voters think he is doing a good job, while 61% believe he is performing poorly.
Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby, the First Minister acknowledged the scale of the challenge facing her party, saying Labour is taking the rise of Reform UK “seriously”.
Asked whether the political class should take responsibility for Labour’s decline, Ms Morgan admitted there was “a lot to do” to win back voters. However, she ruled out any attempt to mimic Reform’s agenda.
“What I won’t be doing in Wales is chasing Reform down a path — where we try and out-Reform Reform. I’m not interested in that, because those aren’t my values. Not interested in it,” she said. “So what we’ll be doing is offering a very clear alternative, which is about bringing communities together.”
When pressed on whether Labour would consider entering into a coalition with Reform UK, Ms Morgan was unequivocal: “I wouldn’t touch Reform with a barge pole.”
As momentum continues to shift in Welsh politics, the road to May’s Senedd election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
