Labour faces historic setback as new modelling points to a hung Senedd
PLAID CYMRU and Reform UK are projected to finish level on seats in Thursday’s (May 7) Senedd election, according to a final poll published just days before voting begins.
The More in Common MRP survey suggests both parties could win 34 seats in the expanded 96-member Senedd, leaving neither close to the 49 needed for an overall majority.
The findings point to a major shift in Welsh politics, with Labour — which has led every Welsh Government since devolution began — forecast to fall to third place.
The poll puts Plaid Cymru on 30% of the vote and Reform UK on 27%. Labour is projected to win 14 seats, with the Conservatives on nine and the Greens on five. The Liberal Democrats are not forecast to win any seats.
If the figures are borne out, Wales would be left with a hung Senedd and no simple route to forming a government.
A Plaid Cymru–Labour deal would reach 48 seats, one short of a majority. That could leave party leaders facing talks over a minority administration, a confidence-and-supply agreement, or a broader arrangement involving the Greens.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With less than a week to go, the race has tightened.
“As we saw ahead of the Caerphilly by-election, Labour is being squeezed in the final days as voters rally behind Plaid Cymru as the progressive alternative to Reform.
“After nearly three decades leading the Senedd, Labour could fail to top the poll in any constituency and be pushed into third place.
“For Reform, this would represent an extraordinary breakthrough — going from barely contesting the last Senedd election to being in contention for the highest number of seats.
“But even Rhun ap Iorwerth will not be celebrating yet — the outcome is likely to require complex coalition or confidence-and-supply negotiations.”
The survey was based on responses from 2,159 people across Wales between March and April.
The election is being fought under a new system, with 96 Members elected across 16 larger constituencies. Seats will be allocated using the d’Hondt method, meaning small changes in vote share could affect the final outcome.
More in Common said around one in six seats could be decided by margins of less than 2.5%, with some final seats in constituencies potentially turning on extremely small differences.
The modelling also suggests First Minister Eluned Morgan could be under pressure in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency, where Labour is projected to finish fourth.
With polling day now close, the final result remains highly uncertain — but the survey suggests Wales could be heading for a Senedd where no party is able to govern alone.
