Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to secure a 194-seat majority, according to a YouGov poll.
This would be the highest number of seats won by any party since Stanley Baldwin’s majority of 208 in 1924. Sky News, in partnership with YouGov, has published the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, suggesting the United Kingdom is on the verge of a major political shift.
The projection indicates a Labour landslide larger than Tony Blair’s victory in 1997. It also forecasts significant losses for the Tories in many regions, a surge for the Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were held today.
The poll shows Labour with 422 seats, an increase of 221 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This would be the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much larger majority than any since the Second World War.
A 194-seat majority for Starmer would surpass Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and Margaret Thatcher’s 144 in 1983.
The Conservatives would drop to 140 seats, down 232, facing a wipeout in London, the North East, the North West, and Wales. This would be their lowest seat count since 1906 when they won 131 seats, leaving the party mainly in the South East, South West, and East Anglia.
This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than their previous post-war low of 165 in 1997.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 48 seats, an increase of 40 from 2019, quadrupling their seats. This would return Ed Davey’s party to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who won 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.
The SNP is projected to win 17 of 57 seats in Scotland, a decrease of 31 from the notional 2019 results. This would be the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade, down from their peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.
YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.
The projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Conservatives 24.5%, Labour 42.9%, Liberal Democrats 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid Cymru 0.7%, and Others 1.7%.
The scale of the projected rout means many of the Tories’ prominent cabinet figures are now at risk. Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor; Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary; Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader; Victoria Prentis, the Attorney General; Alex Chalk, the Justice Secretary; David Davies, the Welsh Secretary; and Johnny Mercer, the Armed Forces Minister, are all projected to lose their seats.
In total, twelve of the 26 members of the Cabinet running for re-election are at risk. Additionally, the future of Steve Baker, Minister of State for the Cabinet Office; Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury; and Lee Rowley, Housing, Planning and Building Safety Minister, are all uncertain, with 22 of the 45 government ministers confirmed to stand also at risk.
One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk. The Shadow Culture Secretary, Thangham Debonnaire, is facing a tough fight against the Greens in her Bristol Central seat, which YouGov says is in the balance.
