Reform UK close behind in two-horse race ahead of 2026 election
PLAID CYMRU has pulled ahead in the latest Barn Cymru poll, leaving Labour languishing at its lowest ever projected Senedd vote share.
The YouGov poll, carried out for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, puts Plaid on 30% and Reform UK just behind on 29%. Labour trails far behind on 14%, while the Conservatives are on 11%, the Liberal Democrats on 6%, the Greens on 6% and other parties on 4%.
If the results were repeated at the ballot box, Plaid would win 38 seats, Reform UK 37, Labour 11, the Conservatives 6, the Lib Dems 3, and the Greens 1.
The next Senedd election will be held on May 7, 2026.
Support for Labour falls away
The poll suggests that Labour’s support has plummeted both in Wales and across the UK, with 62% of those surveyed saying Sir Keir Starmer is performing badly as Prime Minister.
Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth MS said: “Be under no illusion: the choice at the next election is clear – it is between a divisive Reform party that don’t care about Wales and would privatise our NHS, or a pro-Wales Plaid Cymru government that will stand up for Wales and deliver real change.”
He added: “Labour’s support is falling because voters want change. People are overwhelmingly looking to Plaid Cymru for a better future – one that is driven by Welsh values, that will deliver real results and stand up for fairness for Wales from Westminster.”
Expert analysis
Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre said: “This latest ITV Wales poll confirms a trend leading into next year’s Senedd election: the contest for the largest party is becoming a neck-and-neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. With Plaid holding steady at 30% and Reform increasing to 29%, these two parties now lead the field, while Labour trails at 14% and the Conservatives sit at 11%. The numbers suggest a realignment in Welsh politics, with traditional powerhouses no longer assured of their historical positions.”
