THE Welsh Government is set to reveal further details of its draft budget on Monday, as political manoeuvring raises questions over its passage in the Senedd.
Following Labour’s loss in the recent Caerphilly by-election, the party no longer holds the numbers needed to pass the budget without securing support from at least two opposition Members of the Senedd (MSs).
Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford has already indicated that the £27 billion draft budget will largely reflect a “business as usual” approach, with overall spending rolled over from last year and adjusted for inflation. The draft includes an additional £800 million compared with the previous financial year.
Nevertheless, some sectors, particularly local government, have warned that the increase may still fall short of covering rising costs. If the Welsh Government is unable to reach a cross-party agreement, the budget would pass at just 75% of this year’s level, potentially triggering severe cuts to public services and significant job losses.
Labour had previously relied on the support of Liberal Democrat MS Jane Dodds to pass this year’s budget, being one seat short of an outright majority. Plaid Cymru’s victory in Caerphilly, however, now means Labour must secure backing from at least two other MSs to achieve the necessary numbers.
The budget is closely watched not only for its immediate impact but also because it will form the basis of public spending should Labour leave office after the next Senedd elections. Early drafts suggested departmental budgets might rise by around 2%, but figures are expected to be adjusted, with £380 million left unallocated to facilitate negotiations with other parties.
Talks are reportedly ongoing between the Welsh Government and the Welsh Conservatives. One of the Conservatives’ key demands is the scrapping of stamp duty—known in Wales as the Land Transaction Tax—though Drakeford has stated this would create a “big hole in the budget” and is therefore not feasible.
As Monday’s announcement approaches, all eyes will be on whether the Welsh Government can navigate the political arithmetic to secure a budget that balances fiscal responsibility with public service needs.
