LABOUR and Plaid Cymru are expected to win the two new general election seats of Mid and South Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion Preseli, with as much as half of all votes, according to the highest estimates of 12 election polls.
In collated results of different polls from Britain Predicts, The Economist, electionmaps, Electoral Calculus, Focaldata, the FT, Ipsos, More in Common, Savanta, Survation, WeThink, and YouGov, Labour is expected to win the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat with vote percentages ranging from 33 per cent to as high as 50 per cent.
For the top three parties in Mid and South Pembrokeshire, the poll figures as a percentage of votes are listed below.
Labour: 39, 41, 42, 45, 42, 48, 43, 50, 47, 45, 44, and 33.
Conservative: 28, 27, 27, 20, 26, 23, 30, 29, 24, 36, 22, and 29.
Reform: 14, 15, 15, 23, 16, 17, 8, 9, 15, 14, 20, and 19.
The fourth poll, Electoral Calculus, puts Reform as the second-highest polling party for the seat, with 23 per cent, against 20 for the Conservatives.
Ceredigion Preseli polls are predicting a Plaid Cymru win, ranging from a narrow 27 per cent of votes win to as much as 48 per cent.
It includes a few variations about who is in second, third and fourth positions.
Plaid Cymru: 36, 34, 36, 48, 33, 42, 39, 27 – a narrow win over Labour by one percentage point, 42, 34, 37, and 36.
Labour: 21, 22, 23, 16, 24, 28, 22, 26, 21, 23, 28, and 14.
Conservatives: 20, 13, 11, 12, 12, 10, 14, 19, 12, 15, 13, and 14.
The Reform party polls see some potential upsets for Labour and the Conservatives, with the party gaining third place in four polls (one jointly), and even second, in one poll.
Reform: 8, 14, 13, 17 – ahead of Labour by one point, 14, 9, 10, 12, 10, 7, 10, and 14.
Labour, Conservatives and Reform are all tied on 14 per cent each in the Ceredigion Preseli seat according to the YouGov poll.
Candidates standing in the 15-candidate battle for the two seats are listed below.
Ceredigion Preseli: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).
