Voters in Caerphilly will head to the polls on 23 October to elect a new Member of the Senedd (MS), following the sudden death of sitting Labour MS Hefin David in August.
Although the seat will be filled for just six months ahead of May 2026, when a reformed and expanded Senedd comes into effect, the by-election carries considerable weight for local and national politics.
A heartland test for Labour
Labour has held Caerphilly since the Senedd was established in 1999, and the constituency lies deep in the party’s Valleys heartlands. Losing the seat would be both a symbolic and practical blow, undermining Labour’s grip in a region it has dominated for more than a century.
Before David’s death, Labour controlled 30 of the Senedd’s 60 seats, meaning the party often relied on support from opposition members to pass legislation and budgets. Liberal Democrat Jane Dodds recently backed Labour’s spending plans, securing commitments including a ban on greyhound racing.
If Labour retains Caerphilly, its position remains unchanged. But a loss would force the government to rely on at least two opposition MSs to pass key votes. Without this support, the party could struggle to approve a budget, triggering automatic spending cuts.
Labour has warned voters of “significant cuts” if the seat is lost—an argument critics have labelled scaremongering. First Minister Mark Drakeford, however, has stressed that the pre-election budget will remain politically neutral.
A key indicator ahead of 2026
This by-election offers the first real glimpse of voter sentiment in Wales before next year’s major contest. Recent opinion polls suggest a tight race, with Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK all jostling for position.
Reform UK has described the election as its “best chance yet” to secure a seat in Wales, promising to put “everything” into the campaign and offering voters a “chance at genuine change.”
Plaid Cymru hopes to consolidate its support in the area and attract left-leaning voters opposed to Reform. The party has characterised the vote as a direct fight with Reform, claiming “a vote for Labour is a vote for Farage’s party.”
The Welsh Conservatives are presenting themselves as the credible alternative, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats are focusing on care and community issues. The Green Party pledges to put “people and the planet first”, and candidates from Gwlad and UKIP will also be standing.
Who is standing in Caerphilly?
The full list of candidates:
- Labour: Richard Tunnicliffe
- Plaid Cymru: Lindsay Whittle
- Conservatives: Gareth Potter
- Liberal Democrats: Steve Aicheler
- Reform UK: Llyr Powell
- Greens: Gareth Hughes
- Gwlad: Anthony Cook
- UKIP: Roger Quilliam
Voting and eligibility
Residents aged 16 and over who are British, Irish or EU citizens, and are registered to vote in the constituency, are eligible. Citizens from other countries legally resident in the UK, the Isle of Man or the Channel Islands may also vote.
Unlike Westminster elections, voter ID is not required at polling stations. You can check your eligibility on the ONS election maps website.
Polling stations will be open from 07:00 to 22:00 BST on election day. The deadline to apply for a proxy vote is 17:00 on 15 October, with the count taking place overnight and results covered across BBC TV, radio and online.
Looking ahead to 2026
October’s by-election is the last fought under the current system in Caerphilly. From May 2026, the constituency will become part of the new Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni seat, one of 16 larger constituencies to be introduced under Senedd reform.
Each new constituency will elect six MSs via a list-based proportional system, designed to make the Welsh Parliament more representative.
For now, though, all eyes are on 23 October, when local voters will have the chance to shape the political balance in Cardiff Bay—and test Labour’s dominance in the heart of the Valleys.
