Latest survey suggests Labour could be pushed into third place as Plaid and Reform battle for top spot
THE FIRST MINISTER Eluned Morgan could lose her Senedd seat at the upcoming election, according to a major new opinion poll which signals a dramatic shift in Welsh politics.
The YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales, carried out in partnership with Cardiff University, suggests Welsh Labour is facing a significant downturn in support, with projections indicating the party could fail to win in several constituencies – including Morgan’s own seat of Ceredigion Preseli.
Plaid Cymru is forecast to emerge as the largest party, despite a slight dip in vote share to 33%. The party is projected to secure 43 seats – just short of an outright majority – putting leader Rhun ap Iorwerth in a strong position to attempt forming the next Welsh Government.
Reform UK has surged to 27% in the poll, closing the gap on Plaid and potentially securing around 30 seats in the Senedd. The figures underline a rapidly shifting political landscape, with Reform now firmly in contention as a major force.r
Labour, meanwhile, is projected to win just 12 seats on 13% of the vote, placing it behind both Plaid and Reform. The results suggest the party may not return any Members of the Senedd in four constituencies.
Race for power tightening
Political analysts say the latest figures point to a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said the poll shows a narrowing contest for the largest party, but added that Plaid remains better positioned to form a government due to wider coalition options.
He also noted that Labour’s support appears to have stabilised slightly since earlier in the year, following a difficult period, although the party remains well behind its traditional standing.
The Greens continue to perform strongly, polling at 12%, which could translate into around ten seats. Their rise does not appear to be eating into Plaid Cymru’s support, suggesting they are attracting a different group of voters.
Tories face wipeout threat
The poll paints a bleak picture for the Conservatives, who are projected to secure just one seat with around 7% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats, polling at 5%, are at risk of losing representation in the Senedd altogether.
Experts warn that the new electoral system could amplify small changes in vote share, leading to disproportionate losses for smaller parties.
Major change expected
With just weeks to go until polling day, the findings point towards a potentially historic reshaping of the Senedd.
The Herald understands that parties across Wales are now intensifying campaign efforts as the prospect of a change in government becomes increasingly likely.
A large number of new Members of the Senedd are expected to be elected, with the balance of power shifting away from traditional parties and towards a more fragmented political landscape.
