Nigel Farage is on track to become Prime Minister, according to a major new poll which shows Wales as one of Reform UK’s strongest battlegrounds.
The YouGov survey, based on a sample of 13,000 voters over the past three weeks, suggests that if a general election were held tomorrow, Reform would sweep to victory across much of Wales, taking 23 of the nation’s 32 parliamentary seats.
Plaid Cymru would secure six constituencies – holding Caerfyrddin, Ceredigion, Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ynys Môn while adding Bangor Aberconwy and Cardiff West – while Labour would be reduced to just three seats, all in the capital: Cardiff East, Cardiff North, and Cardiff South and Penarth. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats would be wiped out entirely in Wales.
Westminster projection
Nationally, the poll’s multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) model points to a hung parliament, with Reform predicted to win 311 of the 650 Commons seats – just 15 short of an outright majority.
In practical terms, with the Speaker and abstaining Sinn Féin MPs excluded from the arithmetic, the figures would make it almost impossible for anyone other than Mr Farage to command a working majority and move into Downing Street.
If realised, the outcome would represent the largest surge by any party in British electoral history. Reform, which currently holds just five seats, is projected to make 306 gains. This marks a dramatic improvement since YouGov’s last MRP in June, when the party was still 55 seats shy of a majority.
The detailed breakdown suggests Labour would slump to 144 seats – a collapse from the 411 Sir Keir Starmer secured in his landslide last year – while the Conservatives would crash to 45, their worst result in more than three centuries. The Liberal Democrats are forecast to win 78 seats, the SNP 37, the Greens seven, Plaid six and left-wing challengers three.
Labour in retreat
Labour’s projected total would be even lower than the 202 seats it won under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, and the party’s weakest showing since 1931. More than a third of its MPs would represent London, making Labour more dependent on the capital than any major party has ever been on a single region or nation.
High-profile casualties would include Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and deputy leader Angela Rayner.
Conservative collapse
The Conservatives, meanwhile, face near obliteration. From 121 seats last year – already their poorest performance in modern times – they are projected to lose two-thirds of their representation, dropping to just 45 MPs.
This would push them into fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats for the first time in history and leave them wiped out in Wales and the South West. The party would hold just six seats in northern England and a solitary seat in Scotland.
Among the senior figures at risk are Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride, with almost 60 per cent of the Tory front bench expected to fall.
Regional divides
Reform’s advance is concentrated heavily in traditional Labour heartlands. Three-quarters of its projected gains would come directly from Labour, with more than half of Labour’s losses going straight to Farage’s party.
The North East of England emerges as Reform’s strongest region, where it is forecast to win 21 of the 27 seats. Wales and the East Midlands also represent rich territory, while London and Scotland remain difficult ground – the party is projected to take only six of 75 London seats and five of 57 north of the border.
In Scotland, the SNP would rebound to 37 MPs, up 28, leaving Labour with just nine. Analysts say this makes it highly unlikely Scottish Labour could take control of Holyrood in next year’s elections.
Path to power
In theory, the Conservatives could side with Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, Plaid, the SNP and other smaller parties to block a Farage premiership. Yet polling experts say such a coalition is improbable. If the Conservatives abstain, Reform would still have sufficient numbers to form a government.
The projected national vote shares stand at 27 per cent for Reform UK, 21 per cent for Labour, 17 per cent for the Conservatives, 15 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, 11 per cent for the Greens, 3 per cent for the SNP and 1 per cent for Plaid Cymru.
While YouGov cautions that MRP projections carry a margin of error, the central forecast gives Reform 311 seats, with a possible range between 271 and 342. That upper figure would hand Farage an outright majority. Labour’s total could vary between 118 and 185 seats, while the Conservatives might slump to as few as 28.
