Historic valleys seat could fall after more than a century of Labour dominance
POLLS have closed in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, with sources from both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK suggesting the result could go down to the wire.
The by-election was triggered by the sudden death of Labour MS Hefin David in August. He was first elected in 2016 and was well-known in Cardiff Bay for his outspoken contributions and his work as one of the Senedd’s commissioners.
Counting began on Thursday night at Caerphilly Leisure Centre, where officials confirmed that turnout figures would be announced before midnight.
Plaid and Reform confident
Party figures from both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK told The Herald they believe the race is “too close to call”, with one hinting that a recount could be possible if margins prove tight.
Plaid’s candidate Lindsay Whittle, a former Caerphilly council leader, has been campaigning heavily on local services and cost-of-living pressures, while Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell has focused on immigration and opposition to Cardiff Bay’s 20 mph speed limit policy.
Both parties brought in their national leaders for final rallies this week — Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid and Nigel Faragefor Reform UK — underlining the national significance of the vote.
Labour faces uphill struggle
Labour’s candidate Richard Tunnicliffe thanked voters for their support, saying the campaign had been “tough for a variety of reasons.” Welsh Labour insiders privately admit the party expects to finish third, a dramatic reversal in a constituency it has dominated since the early twentieth century.
One Labour source described the contest as “a defeat for Starmerism, not for Eluned Morgan,” arguing that the First Minister remains personally popular on the doorstep despite frustration with the UK party leadership.
Wider implications
A loss in Caerphilly would leave Welsh Labour with 29 of the Senedd’s 60 seats, forcing it to rely on at least two opposition members to pass future budgets.
Politically, the result will be viewed as a key test of the mood across the South Wales Valleys ahead of the 2026 Senedd Election, with polls showing Plaid and Reform gaining ground among voters disillusioned with both main parties.
The count will continue into the early hours of Friday morning, with a result expected around 2:00 am.
