Shock result sends political shockwaves across Wales as Reform also surges in historic Senedd count
LABOUR suffered one of the worst defeats in its Welsh political history on Friday (May 8) after First Minister Eluned Morgan failed to win a seat in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency.
The dramatic result, announced following a tense count in Aberystwyth, saw Plaid Cymru emerge as the dominant force in west Wales, while Reform UK surged into second place and Labour was left without representation.
Under the new six-member proportional voting system introduced for the 2026 Senedd election, the seats were allocated as follows:
- Plaid Cymru — three seats
- Reform UK — two seats
- Welsh Conservatives — one seat
- Labour — no seats
The elected Members of the Senedd for Ceredigion Penfro are:
- Elin Jones (Plaid Cymru)
- Kerry Ferguson (Plaid Cymru)
- Anna Nicholl (Plaid Cymru)
- Susan Claire Archibald (Reform UK)
- Paul Marr (Reform UK)
- Paul Windsor Davies (Welsh Conservatives)
The result marks a devastating blow for Labour, which has governed Wales continuously since devolution began in 1999. The party’s top candidate in the constituency was sitting First Minister Eluned Morgan, but Labour’s vote collapsed across both Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion.
Plaid Cymru topped the poll with 31,943 votes, comfortably ahead of Reform UK on 23,003.
The Conservatives secured 14,789 votes and held on to representation through former Preseli Pembrokeshire MS Paul Davies.
Labour trailed badly on just 6,495 votes.
The full vote breakdown was:
- Plaid Cymru — 31,943
- Reform UK — 23,003
- Welsh Conservatives — 14,789
- Welsh Labour — 6,495
- Wales Green Party — 6,324
- Welsh Liberal Democrats — 4,613
- Gwlad — 802
- Heritage Party — 442
- Aaron Carey (Independent) — 368
- George Alexander Chadzy (Independent) — 286
- Paul Haywood Dowson (Independent) — 88
A total of 89,402 votes were cast, with 247 rejected ballots.
Turnout was confirmed at around 57%, significantly higher than many analysts had predicted for the first election held under the new expanded Senedd system.
The result had been widely anticipated as one of the key battlegrounds of the election, with journalists from across Wales and national broadcasters gathering at the count amid growing speculation that the First Minister could lose her seat.
As counting progressed through the afternoon, it became increasingly clear Labour was heading for disaster in the constituency, with Plaid performing strongly in Ceredigion while Reform UK made major gains across Pembrokeshire.
The new Ceredigion Penfro “super constituency” combines the whole of Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the new 96-member Senedd system, replacing the previous Westminster-style constituencies.
The result is likely to intensify questions over Labour’s future direction in Wales and represents a major breakthrough for Reform UK in west Wales politics.
Plaid Cymru supporters celebrated loudly as the declaration was read out, while Labour activists left the hall visibly stunned.
The defeat of a sitting First Minister in her own electoral region is expected to send shockwaves through Welsh politics for days to come.
