From a Welsh political perspective, we are entering the most consequential Conference season in the devolved era. Every single party will be hoping their Conference helps them build momentum for the crucial months ahead.
First up this year was Reform UK Ltd in Birmingham. The centrepiece of the Conference, the speech by Leader Nigel Farage was overshadowed somewhat by the crisis engulfing the UK Government because of the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner. Polling consistently in the lead at UK level, Mr Farage centrepiece announcement was that on assuming power at Westminster, the migrant boats crossing the channel will be stopped within two weeks. The fact that Brexit is largely responsible for the problem hasn’t been nailed in by his opponents, so Mr Farage is free to make such statements and then having to row back within a matter of days once challenged on the legislative steps that would be required to achieve the ambition. That will not concern him, the initial statement will have been watched by millions of people.
Leading in the polls, Mr Farage has the Tories and Labour chasing his coat tails. I have never considered Yvette Cooper to be a ‘soft touch’ as Home Secretary, but the Prime Ministers decision to replace her with Shabana Mahmood during the reshuffle indicates that the UK Government will move further to the right. Her first big announcement was that the UK would suspend visas for countries that do not agree a returns policy. The problem with trying to ape Reform is that it legitimises their position and enables Mr Farage to push the boundaries of the debate further.
Cleverly Farage floated the idea of a possible snap election in 2027, a full two years before the expected date. With a majority of 174 it is difficult to see how the parliament doesn’t go the full term if the Parliamentary Labour Party remains coherent, but we are living in febrile times and Labour at Westminster already seem to be moving from one crisis to another despite only being in power for a little more than a year. The economic clouds are continuing to darken, and Labour are losing support to both flanks. A bad result in Scotland and especially Wales next year could lead to potential implosion territory.
The great dilemma facing the Reform Leadership is their wish on the one hand to professionalise their image to appear a genuine party ready to take power, whilst maintaining the support of the more radical right swivelled eyed elements which energise the movement. Basing a programme of government on conspiracy theories is high risk to say the least as Trump is finding out with the Epstein files.
From a Welsh perspective the only major policy position I picked up was that the party appeared to be confused on a fundamental position of whether they support abolition of the Senedd or not. In an interview with the BBC during the Conference, the party’s sole Senedd representative, Laura Ann Jones, said the party would not rule out scrapping the institution if it could not be made to work for Wales. Her comments were clarified later by a party spokesperson who said it wasn’t party policy to abolish the Senedd and such a policy wouldn’t be in the manifesto for May.
However, reading both statements in more detail they both indicate that it could potentially be a discussion going past the Senedd election. Reform is after all a destructive political force. Its insurgency is based on tearing down institutions and conventions. Reform Senedd members will be like the UKIP contingent in Brussels using every opportunity to undermine the Welsh Government but also the Senedd itself. If the nightmare scenario of a Reform win next May coupled with a Plaid/Labour coalition prevails, expect abolish to become a clarion call for the party and a central debate in Welsh politics.
For the time-being Reform has a Teflon-like ability. Gaffs can be brushed off easily. Sooner or later the rules of political gravity will catch up with them and as a party they are wholly reliant on the personality cult of Mr Farage. Regrettably it would be foolish and complacent to assume that the normal rules of politics will apply to Reform any time soon.
